The prime minister is reportedly considering a short ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown if his three-tier system fails, as pressure mounts on him to take drastic action over the half-term break.
Sir Keir Starmer and experts are urging Boris Johnson to go further than his latest measures by introducing a fortnight of nationwide curbs, with scientists estimating the move could save around 7,800 lives by the end of the year.
The temporary lockdown would see most businesses, including pubs and restaurants close, if the three-tier restrictions coming into effect today fail to bring down the spiralling infection rate, a Government source told The Telegraph.
If Downing Street choose to go ahead with the plan, it would likely be unveiled by the end of next week ahead of the half-term school holidays. One source claimed the likelihood of the lockdown being implemented is about ‘80% or above’.
Last night the Labour Party leader warned the nation in a televised briefing that the prime minister is ‘no longer following the scientific advice’ by proposing ‘far less stringent restrictions’ than Sage experts have suggested.
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Sir Keir said the Government had not got a credible plan and that a two to three-week nationwide lockdown over the half-term break was now necessary to prevent a ‘sleepwalk into a long and bleak winter’.
A senior source told the Telegraph: ‘Circuit breakers remain on the table.
‘You don’t have to do it across the whole country – you could do it regionally.’
Another added: ‘If the numbers keep going up there will have to be a circuit breaker. At the moment I’d say the chances are 80 per cent or above.’
The ‘precautionary breaks’ would see a nationwide lockdown, before being lifted and potentially re-instated if transmission rates increase again. The idea has been backed by Sage’s Graham Medley and Matt Keeling from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling in a paper due to be released today.
It reportedly calculates more than 7,000 lives could be saved if schools close and the public stays at home from October 24 for two weeks – with scientists saying there are now ‘no good epidemiological reasons to delay the break’.
Their modelling suggested that Covid-19 deaths could be reduced from 19,900 to 12,100 for the rest of the year, reported The Times, with hospital admissions slashed from 132,400 to 66,500.
If schools and shops remained open, the death toll could be cut to 15,600, it reported.
The authors said the temporary measures may ‘limit’ the impact on society and the economy, while allowing the Government to curb infection rates, and ‘potentially allowing other measures (such as contact tracing) to regain control’.
They add: ‘This reduction in infection can be interpreted as a temporal reset, taking the level of infection back (in time) to a lower value, allowing greater opportunity for additional public health measures to be enacted or take effect.’
It comes as the UK recorded more than 100 deaths related to Covid-19 for the first time in four months on Tuesday.
Another 17,234 positive cases were reported and 143 lost their lives to the virus.
The latest restrictions came into effect today, with the Liverpool City Region being plunged under a Tier 3 lockdown with pubs and bars closing for at least a month.
Talks are set to be held today to discuss whether Greater Manchester and Lancashire should also enter Tier 3.
London mayor Sadiq Khan said that it is inevitable the capital will pass a ‘trigger point’ to enter the higher Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions in the ‘next few days’.
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