Next SNP leader: the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon

Three candidates have formally entered the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon following her resignation as SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister.

But the early frontrunner Kate Forbes – a devout Christian and Scotland’s current finance secretary – looks to have thrown away her chance by making an “ill-judged assertion that she would have opposed gay marriage had she been in the Scottish parliament when the law was passed”, said Politico’s London Playbook. The comment in an interview with Channel 4 News yesterday “seems to have gone down like a lead balloon north of the border”, the newsletter added.

Forbes had earlier announced her candidacy, joining the Scottish health secretary, Humza Yousaf, and backbench MSP Ash Regan.

The candidates have until Friday to gather more than 100 nominations from at least 20 local branches of the party to get on to the ballot paper.

That means there is still time for others to enter the race, but it is “likely” the current candidates will be the final three, reported The National. Potential contenders Angus Robertson, Neil Gray, Keith Brown and Màiri McAllan have all ruled themselves out of the contest.

In preparing their campaigns for leadership, those in the running will be addressing their plans for Scottish independence, views on gender reforms, and the current wave of public sector strikes, said The Daily Telegraph.

Voting among party members will begin on 13 March and close on 27 March, with a new leader to be declared that day.

Humza Yousaf

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Seen as the continuity candidate before the Forbes faux pas, Scotland’s health secretary “must now be considered a hot favourite”, said Politico.

Despite being only 37, Yousaf has also served as justice secretary, transport minister and international development minister. In 2012, he became the first Muslim to be appointed to the Scottish government.

However, Yousaf’s running of Scotland’s NHS has come under intense scrutiny of late, and he was criticised for urging the public to “think twice” before calling 999 in September 2021.

Yousaf does not agree with Nicola Sturgeon’s belief in treating the next election as a de facto referendum on independence, said The Telegraph. He insists it is time to talk about “policy” rather than “process”.

He has, however, pledged to continue to fight for the outgoing leader’s gender reform law, which would allow 16-year-olds to self-identify as the opposite sex without needing a medical certificate.

Yousaf “insisted there was no money left to increase NHS pay deals following a series of walkouts”, said The Telegraph, but he did submit “a request for extra funds to cover pay rises, which was rejected by Westminster”.

On the hot-button issue of same-sex marriage, speaking on LBC’s Tonight With Andrew Marr, Yousaf made clear his own stance on the matter: “I’m a supporter of equal marriage… I’m a Muslim. I’m somebody who’s proud of my faith… But what I don’t do is, I don’t use my faith as a basis of legislation.”

Kate Forbes

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Kate Forbes, Scotland’s 32-year-old finance secretary and the current favourite to be the new leader, will return early from maternity leave to join the race. Launching her campaign, she said she could not “sit back and watch our nation thwarted on the road to self-determination”.

The MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch declared: “Our small, independent neighbours enjoy wealthier, fairer, and greener societies – and so should we. We urgently need to unleash the full talent of the SNP, the wider Yes movement and the country at large.”

Forbes was “thrust into the limelight” in 2020 when she was forced to step in and deliver the Scottish budget at “the 11th hour” after her predecessor Derek Mackay resigned, said Sky News.

However, concerns have been raised about whether Forbes, who is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, holds views that conflict with party policies on abortion and same-sex marriage. In 2018, Forbes “made a pro-life speech at a prayer breakfast in Edinburgh”, The National reported.

She was also criticised in 2019 by some in her party when she became one of 15 SNP politicians to sign a letter urging the leadership not to rush ahead with plans to overhaul the Gender Recognition Act, said The Telegraph.

As finance secretary, Forbes has increased benefits and urged Rishi Sunak to raise all social security benefits in line with inflation.

Forbes was asked today if her campaign was over before it began on BBC Radio’s Good Morning Scotland programme.

She replied: “Absolutely not. We have a large party membership, most of whom are not on Twitter. I understand people have very strong views on these matters. I think the public are longing for politicians to answer straight questions with straight answers and that’s certainly what I’ve tried to do in the media yesterday.”

Ash Regan

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Although Ash Regan, 48, is currently a backbench MP, she was until recently a community safety minister. However, she resigned over Sturgeon’s controversial proposed gender reforms.

Unsurprisingly, then, she has vowed to ditch the reforms, telling the Sunday Mail: “Women’s rights will never be compromised with me,” the Daily Mail reported.

Regan has also insisted that any majority for independence-backing parties at an election, whether in Westminster or Holyrood, should be seen as a mandate for independence.

In her leadership campaign announcement, the MSP for Edinburgh Eastern Constituency said: “People expect a First Minister to concentrate on boosting the economy, creating jobs and helping them deal with the cost of living crisis,” she said.

However, she has so far said “relatively little” on public sector pay, said The Telegraph.

Regan has previously supported the objective of reaching net zero on carbon emissions by 2035. However, on Monday she wrote on Twitter: “I will not support an accelerated net zero path which sees us turn off the North Sea taps, throw 10s of 1000s of oil workers out of jobs, hollow out NE & H&I communities whilst still using and importing hydrocarbons. I will stand up for our oil workers and their communities.”