Two-thirds of disease experts believe new variants of coronavirus could make vaccines ineffective within a year, a survey shows.
The study, which saw the People’s Vaccine Alliance interview 77 epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists from around the world, found about 66% of them think the virus will mutate so much that first-generation vaccines will be unable to prevent infection within 12 months.
Of that group, nearly one-fifth believe it would occur within six months and one-third said within nine months. Another 18.2% think it will be at least two years.
But fewer than one in eight experts think the vaccines will be able to withstand future mutations of the virus.
It comes as manufacturers of the currently available injections – including Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca – are now working on booster doses to ward off mutations of Covid-19.
It is hoped an additional jab, given six to 12 months after the first two doses, may help to protect against variants including the Brazil, South African and UK strains.
In February, Pfizer started offering a third dose to 144 volunteers who took part in the vaccine’s early-stage testing in the US last year.
And Moderna started clinical trials of a booster jab earlier this month, with volunteers who took part in the original testing.
Professor Peter Openshaw, from Imperial College London and a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group to the Government, it is difficult to predict what could happen.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme yesterday: ‘What we really find hard to anticipate is in what way it’s going to evolve over the next few months, and particularly over the next winter, and how secure we’re going to be in terms of the level of immunity that’s been built up not only through vaccination, but also through natural infection in different parts of the world.’
When asked about the possibility of vaccines failing to protect against mutations, he said: ‘I think it’s terribly important to emphasise that the evidence that we’ve got is that the vaccines or immunity from previous infection is very efficient at protecting against severe disease.
“There is virtually no serious disease in those who are re-infected or who become ill after they’ve been vaccinated, so the vaccines are really, really good at preventing very serious illnesses, and that’s the most important news.
‘But there is some concern that some of the variants may be able to replicate and pass from person to person, even in people who have been vaccinated with some of these initial vaccines that were developed based essentially on the Wuhan strain.
‘So we need to move with all speed with the next generation of vaccines which are now based on what is now proven technology but are using the new sequences of the viruses that are emerging, which are of concern.’
It comes as England eased lockdown restrictions this week, allowing people to meet in groups of six outside and outdoor sports to resume.
The country also saw its weekly deaths from coronavirus fall below 1,000 for the first time in five months.
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