Reopening schools in September without a ‘comprehensive test, trace and isolate strategy’ could lead to a second wave of coronavirus that is twice as big as the first, researchers have said.
A new modelling study by University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) simulated how Covid-19 may spread when schools reopen next month. It also took account of broader implications such as more parents returning to work and its possible implications.
The authors of the study, published in The Lancet Child And Adolescent Health, found that ‘with increased levels of testing… and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented’.
But in a worst-case scenario, it could result in a second wave peaking in December which is up to 2.3 times higher than the first.
Visit our live blog for the latest updates: Coronavirus news live
Researchers simulated what would happen in an ‘optimistic’ scenario assuming 68% of contacts of people testing positive could be traced. In the more pessimistic scenario the system had 40% coverage.
One of the authors, Chris Bonell, professor of public health sociology at LSHTM, said the current testing system has ‘about 50% coverage’.
For all the latest news and updates on Coronavirus, click here.
He addedd: ‘Our findings suggests that it might be possible [to avoid] a secondary epidemic wave in the UK, if enough people with symptomatic infection can be diagnosed and their contacts traced and effectively isolated.
‘Reopening schools fully in September, alongside reopening workplaces in society, without an effective test, trace, isolating (TTI) strategy could result in a second wave of infections between two and 2.3 times the size of the original wave.
‘Currently, TTI is not achieving the levels that we modelled. Looking at the NHS reports from the TTI system, it looks like it’s about 50% coverage.’
The authors said that without appropriate levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are ‘likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December 2020 if schools open full-time in September’.
The model assumes that around 70% of people would return to workplaces once their children returned to school and up to a 90% increase of mixing within the community with schools reopening.
On Friday, chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty warned that data suggests ‘we have probably reached near the limit or the limits of what we can do in terms of opening up society’.
Researchers said that without improvements in testing it will be ‘absolutely essential’ to introduce other measures to ‘mitigate’ the knock-on effects of schools reopening.
Both Prof Whitty and the Prime Minister said there may need to be ‘difficult trade-offs’ ahead, for example closing pubs and curbing meetings between family members in order to get children back in the classroom.
Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, senior research fellow and lecturer in mathematical modelling, at the Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, UCL, added: ‘Our modelling suggests that, with a highly effective test and trace strategy in place across the UK, it is possible for schools to reopen safely in September.
‘However, without sufficient coverage of a test-trace-isolate strategy the UK risks a serious second epidemic peak either in December or February. Therefore, we urge the Government to ensure that test-trace-isolate capacity is scaled up to a sufficient level before schools reopen.’
A Government spokesman said: ‘Plans have been put in place to ensure schools can re-open safely. Local health officials, using the latest data, will able to determine the best action to take to help curb the spread of the virus should there be a rise in cases.’
The research from Australia, also published in the same journal, examined real world data from the first wave of Covid-19 in New South Wales.
The data from January to April examined lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in educational settings.
Researchers investigated onwards transmission.
Data from 15 schools and 10 nurseries showed that although 27 children or teachers went to school or nursery while infectious, only an additional 18 people later became infected.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
0 Commentaires