The education secretary was reportedly warned weeks ago that the algorithm for determining A-level and GCSE grades could lead to hundreds of thousands of incorrect results – but decided to go ahead with it anyway.
A former director-general for the Department for Education, Sir Jon Coles, is understood to have written to Gavin Williamson six weeks ago, warning that Ofqual’s grading system would lead to unfairness in the system, a senior source in the department revealed.
He said that the best-case scenario would be that A-level and GCSE grading would only be 75% accurate, leading to hundreds of thousands of disappointed students receiving the wrong grades, reported The Times. Ofqual has since stated that its model had a 60% accuracy rate on average.
The source said Sir Jon raised particular concerns over using teachers’ predicted grades for some small groups but relying on the algorithm for larger groups, which would cause unfairness.
This proved an issue on results day, as it meant that students at private schools – which often have smaller classes – saw their grades improve much more than those at state schools, while disadvantaged pupils were worst hit by downgrading.
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Williamson was forced to apologise on Monday night and promise all A-level and GCSE students that their grades could be based on teachers’ predictions, after exams were cancelled amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Almost 40% of students saw their results downgraded following the use of the controversial algorithm, leading some to lose out on university places.
In another eleventh-hour U-turn, schools and colleges have been told not to issue BTec results to students today, after they were left out of the government’s original announcement.
They still don’t know when they will receive their grades, or whether they will be based on the controversial algorithm or their teachers’ predictions, with BTec students telling Metro.co.uk that they feel ‘forgotten about’.
The education secretary claimed he only learnt how unfair the system was ‘over the weekend’.
But the DfE source said he held a video conference with Sir Jon in mid-July over concerns but Williamson chose to push ahead with the system anyway, fearing relying on teachers’ predictions would result in grade inflation and delays.
Williamson is understood to have raised Sir Jon’s concerns with Ofqual but was reassured – despite external advisers warning the education body that the system was ‘volatile’.
Sources told The Guardian that Ofqual was also warned that the algorithm ran the risk of producing erratic results.
The results chaos has led to members of Williamson’s own party calling for his resignation, criticising him as ‘wholly unsuitable’ for the job.
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